Spin the Wheel: Making better decisions through randomness
Table of Contents:
Introduction (snow and a rap show)
A long, long time ago, I won tickets to a rap show featuring a few artists but only one I remember: Rob Base & DJ EZ Rock of "It Takes Two" fame:
This memory has stuck with me over the decades for a few reasons: I was a young dude and had won these tickets calling into a radio station which seemed like magic at the time; I was planning on going with my friend Steve, who'd introduced me to rap and random recording tricks on tape decks a year or two earlier; it was the day of the concert, our small city was experience a snowstorm, and I didn't have the tickets yet.
It goes without saying that this was in the early days, before the Internet let alone cell phones, and I didn't know whether the show had been cancelled on account of the snow or if it'd proceed as planned. If it was still on, then I had to corral my mom to pick up Steve and drive us to the concert. Apparently I hadn't worked any of this out ahead of time because, as an adult, she probably would have known how to get the relevant information and go from there, and instead I remember feeling powerless and impatient in our basement, wanting a sign that the show - my first rap concert - was actually going to happen!
I also remember thinking of the Magic 8 Ball, which Mattel Games was marketing as a kind of fortune teller, as the answer to my question: would Steve and I get to the rap show? Now, I didn't have this magical device nor any way to get one, so am pretty sure that I contented myself with flipping some something over again and again, maybe a coin, maybe something else.. it didn't matter, because in the absence of better options or information, I just wanted an answer to my question.
As you might have guessed, I ended up getting all possible answers a few times which didn't provide much of a signal or help much with my problem. I also didn't end up going to the show and for all I know it actually was canceled. I don't think that's why I still remember this. To be honest, I think the reason this memory lingers has to do with the relationship between feeling powerless and, without knowing of any better options to calm down like meditation, wanting to get a signal that things will turn out okay.
Why leave things to chance?
As an adult who is now verging on middle-age, my preference leans much more towards answering questions in direct, unambiguous ways. The fact that we're also all connected through pocket-sized supercomputers makes this a whole lot easier..
Questions with multiple right answers or tradeoffs are harder to answer, of course. In those cases, a list of pros and cons can help to see if there's a clear advantage one way or the other. If a new job opportunity pays better and offers more vacation and it's closer to home then the decision is obvious, right?
To be honest, though, it's still not always that easy. Sometimes even after weighing the options, the pros and cons seem to be pretty evenly matched. Sometimes there's only a clear preference if something else happens at which point we're left trying to make educated guesses about the future. Sometimes we're just not sure what we want. And, sometimes we might not actually care that much..
In those cases, it can be plenty useful to generate a random answer and nudge the decision-making process forward a bit, as long as we're clear about what this does and doesn't tell us.
Randomness and probability
Let's say that we want to decide by flipping a coin. Whether or not it lands on heads or tails in the real world is determined by all sorts of variables: how much force we used to flick it off our thumbs and where exactly we applied the force, gravity, wind, how balanced the coin itself is, and so on.. On a computer, we need to rely on random number generation (RNG) which does its best to approximate randomness coming from the real world. In browsers, we rely on newer JavaScript functions like crypto.getRandomValues() which basically use machine noise to simulate that physical aspect. This is plenty good enough for our purposes even if it is less comprehensive than, say, using lava lamps to provide that randomness, an approach taken by SGI in the late 90s with Lavarand which has recently been revived by Cloudflare.
Anyways, let's assume that the outcome is perfectly random and that the probability that every outcome happens is equal, so you've got a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. Now you flip the coin three times in a row and it lands on heads every single time. Is it still random? Are the outcomes still equal? It turns that the answer to both is yes: knowing there's a probability that something will happen doesn't guarantee that it will happen in the time or way that you expect.
This is known as the law of large numbers and basically means that we should expect to see all outcomes match their fair probability given enough time. If we use the example of flipping a coin, the first five flips might give us 4 heads and 1 tail (80% heads and 20% tails), but if we flip it 100 times, we should get closer to the 50/50 distribution that we expect. As you probably guessed from the word large, this can take a really long time and every new outcome that we add - like having five options rather than two - makes it take even longer. (You will see this from spinning the wheels below!)
What does this tell us?
If all the outcomes end up being equally possible over 20, 50, or 100 attempts then how can we read any particular meaning in the first flip of the coin or spin of the wheel? It seems like we can't, really, because the next attempt likely won't be the same and if we try to make decisions using hot streaks like ten heads in a row, we'll end up being disappointed most of the time. Maybe the important thing is actually how we feel about the initial outcome. If I'm trying to decide between chocolate or vanilla ice cream and am disappointed when it comes up vanilla, that's probably a good sign that in that instant, I'm craving chocolate a little bit more.
Outside of those cases where we truly do want a random value, our emotional responses to what happens sometimes suggests that we actually do have a preference. Maybe leaning into randomness is a way for us to temporarily give up control and make enough space to see that clearly. Then again, maybe we just want a hit of dopamine from the anticipation and spinning a wheel or rolling dice or picking a random number is a quick fix.
In that spirit, here are some classic cases where people like to leave things to chance, ordered by the number of outcomes..
Wheel #1: Heads or Tails
When you have two options in mind but are having a hard time deciding, flipping a coin is a tried and true way to make that decision.
Wheel #2: They Love Me, They Love Me Not
A variation of Heads or Tails focused on one the most human of experiences, love and longing. If you're looking to answer this question by spinning a wheel, consider talking to the person and asking questions to gauge their interest instead. There's more risk of hurt feelings but spinning a coin will never tell the other person how you feel..
Wheel #3: Yes, No, Maybe
When you're looking for a variation on True or False with a dash of ambiguity, spinning this wheel will do the trick.
Wheel #4: Stop, Go, Slow down
This is similar to Yes, No, Maybe but using the traffic lights metaphor which can be applied to a surprising number of situations. Do not use while driving!
Wheel #5: Random number between 1 and 10
Ending on another classic note if that classic note happens to be rolling a 10-sided die to come up with character attributes for your role-playing game.
Conclusion
Hopefully you've learned a little bit about randomness, probability, and why trying to predict the future by flipping a coin will seem a lot less effective after 25 attempts. At the very least, I hope you had some fun spinning wheels and anticipating the results.
Remember not to base any major decisions on the outcomes (for that, please start with the list of pros and cons!) and pay close attention to how you feel after every result; your reaction should provide clear feedback on which option resonates with you the most.
I'm still a fan of hip-hop but with the benefit of hindsight, I really should have asked my mom how to figure out if that show was canceled or not.. who knows where I'd have ended up!
Any feedback or requests? Please let me know!